The before and after the coronavirus. By Ángel Baguer Alcalá, senior management consultant, professor and writer
COVID-19 is going to leave a trail of deaths and an economic situation that heralds unprecedented global chaos. Has this crisis been managed correctly?
The basis of the management of a country and its crises is not different from that of a company. There is an obvious difference which is the size. A country is a macro society, but management is fundamentally based on the same: leadership, work teams and decision-making.
The crisis has been conditioned by two facts: the ignorance of the virus and deciding the point of equilibrium between maintaining health and sustaining the economy. Regarding ignorance, it was believed at the beginning that this virus was no more dangerous than the common flu, which causes the death of thousands of people in the world, year after year. There was an initial relaxation that turned into concern when it was certain of the high speed of spread of the virus and it was alerted that there was a real danger: the collapse of the health centers, since, in addition to the consultations and admissions of the day Today, we must attend to the sick caused by COVID-19. Only China adopted from the beginning, rapid containment measures in the epicenter of the epidemic and provided people, sanitary or not, with protective materials: gloves, masks, gowns and special equipment. The rest of the countries trusted themselves, some more than others, making decisions, some better than others, based on the dynamics of the spread of the virus.
Another important fact, which has influenced decision-making, has been to find the point of balance between maintaining health (knowing that vulnerability was in the elderly and others at high risk) and sustaining the economy , since collapsing it is a catastrophe for any nation. As the rulers have realized the possible collapse of health, it is when they have put the greatest effort into the confinements and cessation of activities: suspension of classes, closing of bars, restaurants, cinemas, sports events and even business paralysis.
The preparation
Have there been leaders in managing the coronavirus? Not in many countries. It is evident that some have done better than others, but in my opinion, there is a lack of leaders, in general, in the political class. Despite the fact that on January 30, 2020, the WHO warned that it was necessary to prepare to combat the coronavirus, each country decided to wage war on its own, even in political communities such as the EU (European Union). And as in any type of organization, decisions are good or bad depending on the preparation, quality and honesty of its leaders.
Governing leaders are lacking because politics, in general, has been serving as a refuge, for a few years now, to non-vocational people, with little preparation. Many are looking for a livelihood and to stay in office for as long as possible. Why does the political system allow access to positions of great responsibility without adequate preparation? If a professional, be he a doctor, an engineer, a journalist, a teacher, a firefighter, a lawyer or a policeman, to name a few, has to carry out specific studies or take part in opposition, why is the same not required of the political class? In my opinion, in managing the coronavirus pandemic, there have been leadership failures in certain developed countries. A leader is born and made, not by winning elections, which obviously must be held in a democratic system. Hence, any country should require for all positions in public life the appropriate degree of preparation for the position they occupy.
In addition to excellent leaders, management requires good teams. And a leader, whose main characteristic is to influence others and drag them towards the achievement of a goal, must know how to choose teams. In developed countries, leadership has had important gaps in their composition. A leader does not need to know everything at all. In family leadership, in our homes, it is not important to know how to fix the washing machine, the refrigerator or the computer. The vital thing is to know who can fix it for you.
Be a leader
In managing the coronavirus, a good leader has to delegate to a crisis cabinet made up of several key groups: health, communications, supplies to the population, police, army, industry, logistics … And these groups have to be through their work teams made up of good professionals who carry out their functions that have to be very well defined and coordinated by the leader. This, in general, the political class does not know how to do, since at the forefront of these groups politicians are placed as responsible instead of professionals. In the coronavirus crisis, the toilets, the police, the army, agricultural producers, transporters, caregivers of the elderly and children, firefighters, are working exemplary … Who has failed in general? The leaders and their political work teams.
With late decisions, allowing macro concentrations and free movement of people, which have caused the rapid spread of the virus and thousands of deaths. They have not delegated to professionals in science and health, on the one hand, and in organization and logistics, on the other. Although it is a new virus, there has been enough time to investigate its fight in countries with a history of fighting against it. This leads to a fundamental conclusion: there must be fewer and fewer politicians and more professionals in positions of responsibility.
Many countries have hesitated in finding the balance between health and the economy, although with the widespread pandemic, most have opted for the former. What is going to happen? Economic recession or depression? There is an economic recession when the rate of change in GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is negative as economic activity declines, investment and consumption decrease, and unemployment significantly increases. Do we remember the one we had globally at the end of the first decade of the century? Popularly, it is known as the lean period. While the economic recession consists of a temporary slowdown of the economy of a business cycle, the economic depression constitutes the lowest point of the business cycle with a long and considerable decline in production and consumption leading to high unemployment. Credit is restricted, many bankruptcies occur, and the currency is devalued. It is quite common that in economic recession inflation decreases due to the fall in consumption and in a depression deflations (generalized fall in prices) or hyperinflations (generalized rise in prices) can occur, both dangerous things. As an example of depression, the one that took place in the 1930s with a great impact in the United States.
What’s next?
Given that the exit from the tunnel is not clearly visible in the coronavirus crisis, it is difficult to assess the future as to whether there will be a recession or depression. In my opinion it depends on the duration and / or the outbreaks that the virus can cause until a vaccine or the immunity of people solves the problem. In any case, a major global economic recession is certain.
The management of the recession will begin and again the good or bad decisions will depend as always on the people, the leaders and the work teams. High-altitude professionals will be needed to whom we must delegate the management of this lean period, which has already begun, so that it does not lead to depression.
A very important observation, the coronavirus pandemic leaves a before and after. There must be a momentous change. Curiosity, in May 2011, this same magazine asked me for an article about teleworking that has become fashionable in confinement. He believed that it was an opportunity for work-family conciliation and the great benefit it entailed for society due to the decongestion of communication networks (roads, railways and buses), the improvement of the environment (due to the decrease in pollution) and the lowest power consumption. Will we learn, when this is over, to value other things than just money? We cannot continue with a world order where materialism prevails over values, in which in addition to threatening the environment and the future of humanity, a part of it continues to die daily due to lack of resources, while in developed countries it is it wastes without measure, the bad is blessed and the good is stigmatized.
The coronavirus pandemic is a strong warning to humanity. If we do not rectify, we will go to the abyss.
